Grundstimmung des Marktes

Over the past 7 days, prices for oil, non-ferrous metals and other mineral raw materials decreased but still remained high. As a result, the currencies of the commodity countries strengthened: the Canadian dollar, the Australian and New Zealand dollars, the Mexican peso, and the South African rand. The Japanese yen weakened after the release of negative economic indicators: Balance of Trade, Industrial Production and a number of other indicators of business activity in the industry. Moreover, the yen was negatively affected by Haruhiko Kuroda's (the head of the BoJ) belief that Japanese inflation is unlikely to reach the +2% target by 2024. In January 2021, it was -0.6% in annual terms. Investors believe that the Bank of Japan will continue its soft monetary policy.

Оil quotes continued to rise over the past 7 days. Against this background, the currencies of oil-producing countries, such as the Russian ruble and the Canadian dollar, strengthened. The New Zealand dollar weakened after the announcement of negative economic indicators: ANZ Business Confidence and Electronic Retail Card Spending.

Over the past 7 days, oil quotes continued to grow. Precious metals, including gold, fell in price. Against this background, the shares of oil companies increased, the Russian ruble strengthened, the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as well as the South African rand, weakened. The US dollar strengthened on the back of continued growth in US Treasury bond notes.

Prices for various goods and raw materials continued to climb over the past 7 days. This led to the strengthening of the commodity currencies: Australia and New Zealand. The yield on US 10-year bonds has been actively growing since early 2021. Within this period it increased from 0.9% to 1.49% per annum, and over the week - from 1.34% to 1.45%. This could have contributed to the weakening of the Swiss franc. The yield on 10-year Swiss government bonds is negative and one of the lowest in the world, at -0.23% currently.

Quotes of gold mining companies fell along with the price of gold. Investors reacted to a decrease in global risks amid massive coronavirus vaccinations. The end of the pandemic may increase the demand for oil. Thanks to this, the shares of the oil companies advanced the most. The Japanese yen fell on the back of rising yields on US and European bonds.

US dollar short bets inched down to $29.54 billion from $29.95 billion against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to February 9 and released on February 12. The dollar sentiment improvement continued despite Bureau of Labor Statistics report US economy added only 49,000 jobs in January after losing 227 thousand in December, while the unemployment rate declined to 6.3% from 6.7% the previous month.. The drop in dollar bearish bets was recorded despite Fed chair Powell’s highlighting of headwinds to the economic recovery - saying ‘we have not won this yet’, signaling that monetary policy will remain ultra-easy as Fed kept interest rates and bond purchases unchanged. However, US Labor Department reported 847 thousand Americans sought unemployment benefits over the last week, down from 914 thousand the previous week.

The US dollar weakened noticeably over the past 7 days. Investors fear a rise in inflation in the USA amid large-scale measures to stimulate the American economy. Against the backdrop of continued growth in global prices for oil, copper and non-ferrous metals, the commodity-based currencies such as the Russian ruble, the South African rand, the Australian dollar, the Norwegian krone have strengthened. The Turkish lira was supported by the increase in the rate of the Central Bank of Turkey at the end of 2020 to 17%. At the same time, the Central Bank of Turkey intends to keep high rates until 2023 and expects inflation to drop to 10% by the end of 2021.

US dollar bearish bets fell sharply to $29.95 billion from $34.40 billion against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to February 2 and released on February 5. The dollar sentiment improved considerably with sharp drop in bullish bets on euro while bullish bets on Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and British Pound were much smaller as Germany’s retail sales plunged 9.6% over month in December after 1.1% increase a month earlier. The drop in dollar bearish bets was recorded despite Fed chair Powell’s highlighting of headwinds to the economic recovery - saying ‘we have not won this yet’, signaling that monetary policy will remain ultra-easy as Fed kept interest rates and bond purchases unchanged. However, US Labor Department reported 847 thousand Americans sought unemployment benefits over the last week, down from 914 thousand the previous week.

The US dollar has strengthened significantly over the past 7 days. Investors expect new US President Joe Biden's tax initiatives to cut government deficits. Euro fell in price amid weak EU macroeconomic data. Core Inflation Rate YoY in January rose to 1.4%. GDP Growth Rate YoY fell 5.1%. The Turkish lira strengthened due to the rise in the rate of the Central Bank of Turkey at the end of 2020 to 17%. At the same time, the Central Bank of Turkey intends to maintain high rates until 2023 and expects inflation to fall to 10% by the end of 2021.

US dollar short bets increase paused with net short bets inching down to $34.40 billion from $34.48 billion against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to January 26 and released on January 29. The dollar sentiment was essentially unchanged with increase in bullish bets on euro and Canadian dollar overshadowed by decreases in Pound and Australian dollar bullish bets as the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged but said it stands ready to act. The increase in dollar bearish bets paused following Joe Biden’s inauguration and Markit report US Manufacturing PMI rose to 59.1 month for January from 57.1 the previous month, with services sector also accelerating its expansion. Readings above 50.0 indicate industry expansion, below indicate contraction. However, US Labor Department reported 900 thousand Americans sought unemployment benefits over the last week, down from 926 thousand the previous week.