Trade S&P 500

Recent US economic data were mixed. The decline in New York State manufacturing activity slowed while US import prices decreased. According to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to -8.1 in April from -20.0 in March when an increase to -12.8 was expected. Readings above 0.0 indicate improving conditions, below 0.0 indicate worsening conditions. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that the business activity declined modestly after steep decline in previous month, while “price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years. Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook for the first time since 2022.” At the same time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported US import prices unexpectedly fell while export prices remained unchained. Import prices slipped 0.1% over month in March on lower fuel costs following a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in February when no change was expected. In annual terms, import prices increase slowed to 0.9% over year in March from a 1.6% rise in February. Slower than expected decline in New York State manufacturing activity is bullish for SP500, while declining import prices is bearish for the SP500 index. The current setup is bearish for the SP500.